From Kos, If the CA Election Were Held Today
"SurveyUSA. 11/4-6. Likely voters. MoE 2.2%. (10/29-31 results)
Prop 73 -- Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before performing an abortion. If the special election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, would you vote Yes on Proposition 73? Or would you vote No?
Yes 51 (55)No 47 (44)
Prop 74 -- Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to dismiss teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 74? Or would you vote No?
Yes 48 (49)No 51 (50)
Prop 75 -- Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 75? Or would you vote no?
Yes 45 (50)No 54 (49)
Prop 76 -- Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. The Governor would be granted new authority to reduce state spending, [including school funding,] during certain fiscal situations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no?
Yes 39 (49)No 59 (49)
Prop 77 -- Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. District boundaries would be drawn by a panel of retired judges and approved by voters in a statewide election. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on 77? Or would you vote no?
Yes 41 (42)No 56 (56)
Huge sample size, and all of Arnold's propositions trending toward defeat. Still, the numbers here are more friendly to the "Yes" side than the final CPI and Field (PDF) results. We'll find out soon enough who scored the best numbers.
Also, note how SUSA played along with Mystery Pollster's wishes to use one of these questions as a case study on how a poll's wording could impact the results. Pretty cool."
I think the numbers are too close for comfort. I am surprised and dismayed. Scary.
"SurveyUSA. 11/4-6. Likely voters. MoE 2.2%. (10/29-31 results)
Prop 73 -- Proposition 73 requires that physicians notify the parent of a pregnant minor at least 48 hours before performing an abortion. If the special election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, would you vote Yes on Proposition 73? Or would you vote No?
Yes 51 (55)No 47 (44)
Prop 74 -- Proposition 74 extends the probationary period for new teachers from 2 years to 5 years, and makes it easier to dismiss teachers with unsatisfactory performance evaluations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 74? Or would you vote No?
Yes 48 (49)No 51 (50)
Prop 75 -- Proposition 75 prohibits public employee unions from using union dues for political purposes without the written consent of union members. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 75? Or would you vote no?
Yes 45 (50)No 54 (49)
Prop 76 -- Proposition 76 limits growth in state spending so that it does not exceed recent growth in state revenues. The Governor would be granted new authority to reduce state spending, [including school funding,] during certain fiscal situations. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on Proposition 76? Or would you vote no?
Yes 39 (49)No 59 (49)
Prop 77 -- Proposition 77 changes the way California draws boundaries for Congressional and legislative districts. District boundaries would be drawn by a panel of retired judges and approved by voters in a statewide election. If the special election were today, would you vote Yes on 77? Or would you vote no?
Yes 41 (42)No 56 (56)
Huge sample size, and all of Arnold's propositions trending toward defeat. Still, the numbers here are more friendly to the "Yes" side than the final CPI and Field (PDF) results. We'll find out soon enough who scored the best numbers.
Also, note how SUSA played along with Mystery Pollster's wishes to use one of these questions as a case study on how a poll's wording could impact the results. Pretty cool."
I think the numbers are too close for comfort. I am surprised and dismayed. Scary.
posted by Susan | 6:26 PM
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